Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.586075 3.541109 4.902767 7.057394 1.052363e+01 16.158361 2.666281e+01
2025-03-09 1.708346 2.695054 4.397934 7.804621 1.519581e+01 32.801469 8.856499e+01
2025-03-16 1.192746 2.101423 3.933161 8.440971 2.155825e+01 69.751714 3.959987e+02
2025-03-23 0.891748 1.730032 3.675093 9.534993 3.300657e+01 184.247056 4.514695e+03
2025-03-30 0.680212 1.431227 3.401260 10.575230 5.079013e+01 594.439379 1.498841e+06
2025-04-06 0.498545 1.109729 2.859658 10.217334 6.502354e+01 1741.849042 NaN
2025-04-13 0.368096 0.854627 2.344139 9.371920 7.660385e+01 5446.977979 NaN
2025-04-20 0.299490 0.732151 2.172427 10.077088 1.190054e+02 81782.818327 NaN
2025-04-27 0.256966 0.663745 2.147809 11.854965 2.301223e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.224768 0.611786 2.155940 14.280548 5.168757e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.192414 0.544686 2.050120 15.765624 1.057355e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.159234 0.460926 1.802359 15.168722 1.573420e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.129311 0.380224 1.527743 13.734208 2.037441e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.113225 0.343954 1.463653 15.201948 5.763124e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.099188 0.309842 1.386329 16.434333 1.951474e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.088849 0.286154 1.354118 18.741014 1.669900e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.079637 0.263415 1.310243 20.958133 9.102995e+06 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.068959 0.230629 1.171431 19.953408 1.184127e+09 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.059316 0.199346 1.021966 17.906105 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.053831 0.184524 0.982593 19.381554 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.050304 0.177180 0.994943 23.343336 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.047403 0.171675 1.019014 28.967178 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.043820 0.161659 0.996225 32.463133 NaN NaN NaN